Election Night

9pm-Sorry for the lack of updates, my database is melting under a query trying to work something out. Overall this is very close but I suspect the Coalition will be ahead of the ALP on seat numbers. WA is looking bad for the ALP on early figures but that may not translate to seats.

6.10pm-Everything seems to be working, ping me on Twitter if you notice any issues though.

5.50pm-Is the 10 exit polling just herding/copying the Galaxy exit poll? Didn’t put any great confidence in those statements.

5.30pm-Pundits are already punting on postals and pre-polls, forget about them if the Galaxy-Nine exit poll is correct.

4pm – My model seems to be working, just waiting for TCP to be released at 6pm and should be good to go.
Struggling to get some of the State primary swings to work and the aggregates and seats in doubt/changing seats won’t come online before 8pm.

This is a list of the projections, data, and results I’ll be publishing here on the site from 6 pm Saturday Night. My main aim is to publish early and accurate seat calls and counts from a model-if a division is too close or too early to call it should also publish that though. Apart from that, my focus is on unique data and results not easily available elsewhere.

Seat Calls – A table of seat results as my model calls them

Seat Count – A summary table of seats called and likely/in doubt etc
I expect the model will call at least 90 seats by 7 pm and ~110-120 by 7.30pm depending on how many close seats there are. When the close ones get called depends on count progress and how close they are.

Seats in Doubt

Changing Seats

Projections – a full list of Divisions with projections on the leading candidate in terms of projected TCP when available, and including preference share % and some other interesting points

Projected Swings by State and by various groupings for primary and TPP

Swings on aggregate election day booths and pre-poll booths both primary and TCP by division

I’m not planning to publish any raw data, ie the current primary count numbers or current TCP count, except for count progress. And I am not planning on putting up separate pages for each division. The AEC VTR and other sources make that easily accessible IMO and I expect people to read this site in conjunction with other sites.

Suggestions and requests are welcome though-no guarantees but I’m happy to try to do unique things.